Dr Huseyn Aliev is a Senior Lecturer (Political and International Studies) at the University of Glasgow. Previously, he was a Research Fellow at the School of Interdisciplinary Area Studies, University of Oxford. From 2015 to 2017, Dr Aliyev was based at the Research Center for Eastern European Studies (Forschungsstelle Osteuropa), University of Bremen, where he worked as Alexander von Humboldt Post-Doctoral researcher.
Dr Aliyev's area experise is Ukraine and Russia (particularly the North Caucasus region). Since 2014, he has conducted extensive fieldwork in Ukraine, interviewing former and active members of pro-government paramilitary groups.
What is your view on the latest conflict developments in Ukraine? Will Ukraine withstand Russian offensive in light of manpower and weaponry shortages?
The current situation is perhaps the most challenging since the start of the Russian invasion in 2022. Most of the problems which are now affecting the Ukrainian defence in Donbas are not new, such as organizational issues (creating new brigades but understaffing old ones), lack of defence fortifications and lack of reserves, so there is no easy solution to either of these problems. The Ukrainian military and political leadership will have to make difficult decisions as to whether they want to keep deploying those few available resources that they have to the Kursk region or they'd instead use them to defend strategically important territories in Donbas.
Can Russians deploying North Korean units in Ukraine to change the situation on the ground?
There is already a more than one million-strong Russian military contingent in Ukraine, so an extra 10,000-20,000 North Korean soldiers are not likely to make significant changes. However, if the Ukrainian command continues to rely heavily on infantry in manoeuvre warfare (particularly in the Kursk region) instead of effectively deploying drones and a network of defence fortifications, these extra boots on the ground are likely to cause trouble.
What do you think about Ukraine’s victory plan presented by Zelensky?
The victory plan lacks concrete details. It is not clear how Ukraine will achieve victory without direct NATO intervention, which is, of course, not very likely to happen. The plan is currently looking more like a declaration or statement rather than a roadmap that either the Ukrainian government or military can follow.
Should Ukraine seek negotiations (e.g., on a ceasefire) with Russia in light of possible more limited Western aid this year?
Negotiations seem inevitable, but their outcome is difficult to predict. Ukraine is now in a much weaker position to negotiate than it was last year, for example. Trump's reelection, as well as the continued commitment and willingness of the West to support Ukraine, are likely to decide a lot.
What do you think the Kremlin’s ultimate objective in Ukraine?
The objectives seem to be changing in accordance with the circumstances. The Kremlin's current objectives seem to be heavily focused on taking control of all of Donbas and then possibly of the Zaporizhya and Kherson regions, which it officially annexed in 2022. However, these goals might change depending on Russia's success (or the lack thereof) on the battlefield.
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